Trump leads Harris by 5 points in Texas

Less than a month before the election, Texas still bleeds red. Fifty percent of the state's voters opt for Donald Trump, while 45% prefer Kamala Harris, according to a poll by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research.

The Republican beats Harris by double digits (53% vs. 42%) among male voters, while they tie in the female vote. Non-college-educated white voters prefer Trump by over 30 points (63% vs. 31%). Trump also leads among college-educated voters (52% vs. 42%), albeit by a narrower margin.

If the victory predicted by the recent poll holds true, the former president will replicate the performance he had against the Biden-Harris duo in 2020, when he won by a margin of 5.6%. Against Hillary Clinton in 2016, the gap was 9%.

Texas: A Republican pillar

It has been nearly 50 years since a Democrat was victorious in Texas, when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976. Until then, however, it was not uncommon for Democrats to win the state. Prior to that election, the GOP had won only four of 20 presidential contests since 1900, according to Ballotpedia data.

With a Trump victory, the state would remain a Republican pillar and even the all-time tally with 16 wins for each party.