Trump's presidential victory peaks in prediction markets two days after attack
Polymarket predicts a 71% chance for the Republican candidate to win versus 18% for Joe Biden. It is the biggest gap between the two contenders since there has been data on the platform.
Donald Trump- Rebecca Droke- AFP
Polling agencies have not yet been able to assess the impact of the Butler, Pennsylvania attack on the possible results of this presidential election. However, those who predicted that Saturday's attempted assassination could have a major effect on public opinion and voting intention would be correct, according to prediction markets.
Data from the Polymarket portal gives a new high probability for Donald Trump's victory over Joe Biden in the November election. As of this Monday, July 15, probability has increased to 71%. The portal only reflects an 18% probability for Biden's victory.
This new high rises above the 68% that the portal reported on Sunday, which was already the highest figure for Trump's victory since the beginning of July, at 67%.
Attack increases probability in Trump's favor
The change in probability may be related to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump this Saturday in the town of Butler, Pennsylvania. Prior to this event, Polymarket indicated a 60% probability, eleven points lower than this Monday.
In the breakdown by states offered by the portal, the country is stained red. Only California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia and finally Hawaii remain in favor of the Democratic candidate.
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