Swing in the polls on the eve of the presidential debate?

The fierce battle for the White House has moved to the polls. With both candidates within a minimal margin, two of the main pollsters project a difference of roughly one point, each with a different candidate in the lead. According to Five Thirty Eight, the Democratic candidate has turned the previous results around and is 0.2 points ahead. Real Clear Politics, on the other hand, projects the Republican ahead by one point.

According to 538, the flip occurred for the first time last on June 20, but remains on the eve of the first presidential debate of the campaign on CNN. According to their poll, the Democratic candidate has 40.9% support, compared to 40.7% for his main rival. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is projected to win almost 10% of the electorate (9.4% at the time this article was published).

538 projects victory for Biden

In addition, 538 has begun running some 1,000 simulations daily on the election, taking into account polls, as well as economic and demographic data. If the election were held on June 25, the president would continue another four years in the White House with 51% support, while Trump would remain at 49%.

Real Clear Politics with Trump

However, Real Clear Politics (RCP) keeps Trump ahead, with a one-point lead over his Democratic rival in a head-to-head. According to the average of the polls they analyzed, the former president would have the backing of 46.2% of the electorate, compared to Biden's 45.2%.

It should be noted that this page includes a greater number and variety of polls than 538. RCP's incorporates the polls of Rasmussen Reports and Yahoo News, among others, which 538 does not include.