Biden's support continues in free fall with young voters, while Trump gains ground heading into November

Joe Biden continues to disenchant young voters, a fundamental part of the electoral coalition that led him to victory in the 2020 presidential elections. This was reflected in a survey by the Harvard Institute of Politics (IOP), which found worrying numbers for the Democratic president’s reelection hopes.

Four years ago, the current president reached the White House by improving Hillary Clinton’s performance among suburban voters (especially women), men in general, and independents, a key group when it comes to recovering the famous’ blue wall.’ At the same time, he had strong support among African Americans and young voters, who seem eager to vote differently in 2024.

According to the latest IOP poll, this demographic’s support for a Democratic candidate fell to its lowest level in recent years. Indeed, among young people between 18 and 29, Biden would obtain 50% of the votes, against 37% for Donald Trump. Compared to 2020 numbers, this would mean a nine-point drop for the president.

Adding outside candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West, would reduce Biden’s lead to just seven percentage points.

Why are the young voters moving away from Biden?

John Della Volpe, IOP polling director, sees some changes from past election cycles. “Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than what we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” he explained with the results in hand.

When explaining the reasons that young people distance themselves from the presumptive Democratic nominee, the survey showed the main distancing among young men, a group that dropped 20 percentage points in its support for Biden when compared to 2020.

“From worries about the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and climate, young people across the country are paying attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard at the ballot box this November,” said OIP Director Setti D. Warren. “Young people today have clear concerns about where our country is headed,” he added.

The case is different with young women, who continue to support Biden at very similar levels as in previous elections.

The fragmentation of the president’s electoral coalition is not only due to young voters since Hispanics and African Americans are increasingly leaning towards the GOP, further weakening the Democrat heading into November.