Who would benefit most from a competitive third candidate? This is what No Labels internal polls say

A Quinnipiac poll said that 47% of likely voters would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election. The group No Labels plans to take full advantage of this situation. The political organization plans a million-dollar investment to promote a presidential candidacy outside the traditional parties.

So far, would be a favorite choice to potentially go up against Donald Trump as the Republican nominee and Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.

"Our political discourse lacks engaged discussions around common sense solutions to solve the pressing problems facing our nation. I look forward to modeling this type of conversation with my good friend, Governor Huntsman, and the No Labels community. The things that unite Americans are much stronger than the things that divide us, and I'm sure that will be evident in our debate," the senator said at a recent event organized by the organization.

According to Nancy Jacobson, the group's CEO, they will only run an independent candidate if they believe they are "viable" and would not help Trump return to the White House. "We won't spoil for either side. The only reason to do this is to win," she stated in dialogue with NBC News.

However, the polls conducted by the group have a clear pattern: the former president would benefit most from a competitive third-party candidacy, or at least this is what was reflected in key states.

No Labels internal surveys

According to the internal poll conducted in Arizona, Trump would be four points ahead of Biden in a head-to-head, but with another strong name in the running, the gap would extend to ten points. Indeed, this is the state where the potential No Labels candidate would do best, with 29% of the vote.

The scenario is identical in Georgia and North Carolina, where the head-to-head difference is four and eight points, respectively, which extends to nine and eight points with the addition of an Independent. However, the Independent's share of the vote would drop to 19%.

The effect would be similar in Pennsylvania, a state considered critical for Republican aspirations to return to the White House, where Trump would obtain 43%, Biden 38% and the third candidate 19%. Taking the latter option off the table, Democrats and Republicans would tie at 50%.

The incumbent would have better numbers in Nevada, where polls overestimated GOP support in the last two presidential elections. Nevada would elect Biden with 51% over Trump's 49%. The Independent candidate could complicate things a bit since his presence would lead to a scenario of parity between the two prominent names.

The last key state is Wisconsin, which in 2020 was defined by just 0.4%, a mere 20,000 vote difference. The trend there is mixed, as Democrats and Republicans split victories in the midterm elections: Ron Johnson (R) renewed his Senate seat and Tony Evers (D) renewed his stay in the governor's mansion.

According to No Labels internal polls, Biden would defeat Trump one-on-one, 53% to 47%. However, with a strong, independent third option, the Republican would rebound and carry the state and its ten electors.