The real purpose of Israel’s gas deal with Egypt

The signing of the massive natural gas deal with Egypt goes far beyond its $34 billion price tag. One of the main reasons for the agreement’s delay was Egypt’s problematic approach to Israel on political and security issues.

According to information gathered in recent years, Egypt has deployed forces in Sinai far beyond what is permitted under the security annex of the 1979 peace treaty. It has also built tunnels deep in the peninsula for storing weapons and has suspiciously extended runways at airfields.

The understandings between Israel and Egypt on the gas deal do not include an Egyptian commitment to withdraw prohibited forces from the Sinai Peninsula. Israel Hayom has learned that the accompanying agreements provide for dialogue on mechanisms to address Egyptian violations. While the U.S. has pledged to facilitate discussions on the matter, there is no clear commitment to rectify the situation.

Israeli officials believe that once gas deliveries begin, this will serve as leverage to deter Cairo from violating the peace treaty. They also contend that, without Israeli gas, Egypt would have turned to Qatar.

A security achievement

Despite the agreement, efforts to politically warm relations with Egypt have so far faltered due to the ongoing war in Gaza and the tense relations between the presidential palace in Cairo and the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem.

The Americans explored the possibility of a summit between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with President Donald Trump participating, but the Egyptians rejected the idea.

Beyond these issues, the gas agreement allows Israel to achieve several strategic objectives. Chief among them is Egypt’s dependence on Israeli gas, which it uses for domestic energy needs and for liquefaction and export to Europe—a vital source of foreign currency crucial to Egypt’s economic stability.

Egypt has its own gas fields, but they are insufficient to meet these needs. This dependence gives Israel diplomatic and security leverage over its southern neighbor, though its impact is largely limited to major strategic issues—chiefly reducing, or even eliminating, concerns that Egypt might cancel its peace treaty with Israel.

An energy powerhouse?

Israel is consolidating its status as a regional energy power, supplying gas not only to Egypt but also to Jordan, where it meets a significant portion of the country’s energy needs.

The agreement with Israel comes at Qatar’s expense. Doha had been negotiating with el-Sisi on building a new gas pipeline, but such a project would take years—and Egypt did not have time to wait.

The agreement paves the way for additional energy projects with Gulf states—initiatives that have long been under consideration and are expected to advance once an agreement is reached to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, likely only after the Israeli election sometime in 2026 and the formation of a new government.

Under the agreement, Israel will build an additional gas pipeline between Ramat Hovav and Nitzana, enabling further increases in exports to Egypt. The deal is also expected to restart tenders for exploration of new gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, with the Energy Ministry renewing preparations for those bids.

Another reason for the delay in the agreement with Egypt was the Energy Ministry’s insistence that remaining reserves in existing fields be sufficient for Israeli domestic consumption and priced at current low levels. According to the ministry, these conditions have been fully met.

©JNS