GDP grew 3.4% in the third quarter of the year, defying market expectations

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a macroeconomic indicator that measures the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given period, recorded a 3.4% increase in the third quarter of 2026, defying market expectations.

Analysts expected the economy to grow, but at a slower pace (3.1%). In the second quarter, growth had been 2.2%.

In a press release, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency within the Department of Commerce, reported the reasons that led the country's economy to post such growth during the period from July through September.

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a year-over-year rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026 (July, August and September), according to the preliminary estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)," the agency said.

"The factors that contributed to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were increases in investment, consumer spending and government spending, which were partially offset by a decline in exports. Imports, which are subtracted from the GDP calculation, increased," the BEA added.

Interest rates remain unchanged

This assessment comes hours after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it will not change interest rates. Its chairman, Kevin Warsh, appeared to confirm that rates will remain within the same range, even though some members of the central bank, such as Gov. Lisa Cook, were calling for a quarter-point increase.

Economy

Federal Reserve does not change interest rates ahead of midterms

Alejandro Baños

"The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system," Warsh said at a press conference, where he announced that the Fed will reduce the number of rate-setting meetings in 2027.

GDP growth is a boost for the president Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections, which will be held next week. The economy is one of the central issues of the election campaign.