In the 2020 presidential elections, Donald Trump obtained 32% of the Latino vote, two points more than in 2016. Although this was the best number for a Republican since 2004, when George W. Bush got 40%, the former president plans to increase it to defeat Joe Biden and thus return to the White House for a second non-consecutive term.
A recent poll conducted in New York, a state that has not elected a Republican for president since 1984, proved to be very encouraging for Trump's intentions, given that Latinos in the state prefer him over Biden.
According to a poll recently released by Siena College, 42% of Latinos residing in the Empire State would vote for Trump, against 39% who would vote for Biden. For the poll's authors, the results should alarm Biden's reelection campaign.
"I would think it's very concerning [for Biden]. It fits in with what we're seeing nationally," said Steven Greenberg, a pollster at Siena College.
At the same time, the gap between the two at the state level has shrunk considerably since 2020, when Biden carried New York by a 23-point difference. Now, while the incumbent still trails his predecessor, he does so by only 9 points.
"As has been the case in recent national polls, Biden has lost considerable support among key constituencies that propelled him to victory four years ago. While Biden's falling poll numbers have not been dramatic month-to-month, they are dramatic if you look over the last year. A year ago, Biden's net favorability rating was +2, today 10 points underwater, and his net approval rating fell from +4 to -12, a net drop of 16 points," Greenberg added.
Trump is also favored among Republicans in the state, who want to see him again as the party's nominee. "New York Republicans are all in with Trump. Four out of five Republicans view him favorably, and three-quarters of Republicans want to see Trump as their presidential standard bearer this year," Greenberg concluded.
