The primaries for the Republican nomination for president were decided before they began, as all the polls indicated. However, with the outcome of the Iowa caucuses and the subsequent reaction, there is no longer anything to consult on the eve of the New Hampshire primaries.
Trump's hegemony over the Republican Party remains mostly intact. After the Iowa result, where the former president swept the caucuses, the conservative support he has received has been almost unanimous, even from former opponents.
The first to join him was businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who won just over 7% of the vote in Iowa. A few days later, the one who dropped out of the presidential race was the other candidate who, apart from Trump, promised the most: Ron DeSantis.
This Sunday, January 21, the Florida governor announced that he was dropping out of the race to make way for Donald Trump, who, as DeSantis made clear in his withdrawal speech, is today the undisputed candidate of the Republican Party. Although expected, DeSantis' decision is framed within a pragmatic notion of politics: Joe Biden must be defeated in November, and the one with the best chance today is Donald Trump.
With DeSantis and Ramaswamy out of the primaries, only the former governor and former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, who in Iowa managed to get 19.1% of the votes, remains. In the New Hampshire primaries, which will be held this Tuesday, January 23, the projection, according to the polls, is that Haley will get a little more than 30% of the votes, compared to more than 60% in the case of Trump.
Before announcing her candidacy, Nikki Haley enjoyed a certain prestige within the Republican Party and the conservative world. She was a successful governor of South Carolina, and as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations from 2017 to 2019, she defended the interests of the United States with panache and harassed her enemies.
Now, because of the campaign, Haley's image has deteriorated tremendously in the eyes of the conservative movement. Her frailties and some positions not attractive to the right were exposed. Trump, who was her boss, is now attacking her mercilessly.
There is no way Nikki Haley can turn around the expectation or, rather, the certainty that Trump will be the nominee. For now, the former ambassador is set to remain in the race with the desire to eventually thwart Trump's candidacy. This, unless the unthinkable happens, is unlikely.
Almost all of DeSantis' supporters, formerly Trump's enemies, decided to support the former president because the objective transcends a politician or a leader. The United States is living in dark days, discredited in front of the world, thanks to the Democratic presidency of Joe Biden. Avoiding a second Biden term is, for now, what motivates the most skeptical to support Donald Trump's candidacy. It is the right thing to do.
As long as Haley remains in the race, she will continue to create cracks in his image and widen the small rifts within the Republican Party or America's right wing. None of this is desirable, especially if it is collateral damage for free, as Haley's candidacy is adrift.
Perhaps the only hope Haley has is that the Democrats' legal wiles succeed and they manage to wrest the nomination from Trump judicially. In that scenario, however, Haley, although with a more straightforward path, would not gain a follower because the entire right wing would probably close ranks, out of solidarity, around Trump. And this, too, would be the right thing to do since Trump would be the victim of one of the most serious democratic perversions in U.S. Republican history.
To keep what is left of her prestige and dignity intact, Haley must withdraw from the race for the Republican nomination. If she does so before New Hampshire, it would be even better. In that way, the former ambassador would send the country a message that, beyond her profound differences with Trump and her ambition to be president of the United States, the country comes first, and defeating Joe Biden is the priority.
With no chance, anything Nikki Haley does against Trump will be harakiri.
