Hispanics are no longer voting for Democrats. Democrats have been steadily losing Hispanic voters between the ages of 18 to 29. Their support has decreased nearly 20 points over the past three years. This was revealed by a Gallup poll that showed that right now, in the middle of an election year, Democrats have only a modest advantage among Latinos compared to the historical support that this group has given them.
Currently, an estimated 36 million Hispanic people will be able to vote in the next elections.
"Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English,” Gallup explained.
These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023.
The data coincides with a study that explained that Hispanic support for Democratic President Joe Biden fell to 34% support compared to 39% for former Republican president Donald Trump.
This is a large decline from 2020, when Biden won 65% of the Latino demographic compared to Trump’s 32%. Young voters are also losing interest in Biden, since according to the survey Trump leads voting intentions among voters under 35 years of age with 37% compared to Biden’s 33%.
A study from the University of Houston had similar results. The study found found that "overall, 49% of Texans plan to vote for Trump in November, while 40% will vote for Biden and 11% say they support a third-party candidate or are undecided."
"Latino voters will once again prove decisive in the upcoming presidential election"
Axios revealed that Latinos are becoming more and more important in defining the country's political future. "Latinos are an increasingly important voting bloc, representing 18.7% of the U.S. population and growing," said the study by Axios and Ipsos along with Noticias Telemundo.
Inflation and the rising cost of living are the issues that most concern Hispanics, according to a Unidos U.S. survey which detailed that these two topics were mentioned by 54% of Latinos as their top priority, while employment and the economy came in second place (44%) and health care came in third place (33%). Latinos also expressed concern about violence (29%) and the border crisis (20%).
Jesús Márquez, a political consultant with ties to the Trump campaign in Nevada, claims Republicans have proposals that address the problems of Hispanics. An example of this is immigration policies. Márquez explained that Latinos are not happy with the immigration crisis.
"That's something that Latinos who have lived here for decades don't like, because they feel that many people are skipping their place in line," Márquez said in a conversation with AFP.
Meanwhile, Héctor Sánchez Barba, executive director of Mi Familia Vota, explained that the Hispanic vote will be decisive in the 2024 presidential elections.
"Latino voters will once again prove decisive in the upcoming presidential election. Looking to 2024, we are excited to see that 22% of Latinos will be voting in their first Presidential election, 16% for the first time in ANY federal election, and that 38% of the Latino electorate is new since 2016. These new voters are an incredible opportunity to organize and build Latino political power. We have a year, and this poll is critical in helping to understand and begin organizing to turn out Latino voters in 2024," Sánchez Barba explained.
