The battle for the poles: Major powers race to control the Arctic and Antarctica

While 60 years ago the international contest of concern to the world's great powers was the space race, in the 21st century there is a new race with many more competitors. It is for Antarctica. The United States, China, Australia and Argentina, among others, are already positioning themselves to claim the "last continent to be colonized."

What is the reason for this growing competition? What is it about Antarctica that makes it so coveted? First, it possesses an incalculable amount of natural resources, such as iron, antimony, chromium, gold, molybdenum, uranium, oil and diamonds. On top of this, Foreign Affairs also said it may be the world's largest coal mantle.

In turn, it offers access to the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans, while also being critical for global communications, given that it offers perhaps the best view of space.

With all this in mind, the competition for these resources between an interesting mix of countries promises to be very close, like the first race in the popular movie "Cars."

In the wake of the Antarctic Treaty of 1961, a false sense of calm and security has been created around this continent, a sense that is slowly eroding with the year 2049 in the world's sights.

What is the Antarctic Treaty?

Agreed upon in the mid-20th century, the agreement's main objective was to prevent Cold War tensions from reaching the South Pole. It prohibits the use of the continent for military purposes and instead promotes scientific cooperation.

Shortly thereafter, a series of agreements integrated into the Antarctic Treaty System succeeded in keeping the continent as a neutral international site.

Unless there is a scientific purpose, military activity and nuclear weapons testing are prohibited on the continent, and parties involved in the treaty are obliged to provide free access to their research stations, which are subject to inspection.

Currently, 54 countries are part of the treaty, with seven countries having submitted territorial claims: Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

This treaty expires in 2049, and negotiations to renew it are expected to be more than contentious.

The race for the South Pole in the 21st century

According to Elizabeth Buchanan, an international security researcher who spoke to Foreign Affairs, the decades of tranquility in Antarctica are very close to coming to an end, something she understands even as natural given the global context. 

"We forget the Treaty was crafted during the Cold War context. This was not a Kumbaya moment to hold hands and conduct climate research. That wasn't really an interest back then, nor was resource insecurity," she explained. 

Indeed, the parties are no longer very comfortable sharing this space, and some are even constantly on the verge of breaking the rules, taking advantage of the fact that there is no formalized mechanism of punishment. Twice during the annual Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, Russia has presented papers questioning whether the treaty system is still adequate.

The clearest example is in satellites, such as China's BeiDou, Russia's GLONASS, the United States' GPS and the European Union's Galileo. All of these systems rely on Antarctic ground receivers to operate, and while they are of great importance for scientific research, they also have clear military and security applications.

In turn, many of these countries rely exclusively on their militaries to operate in Antarctica. For example, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States often deploy military personnel for scientific expeditions, just as China and Russia rely on their militaries to provide logistical support for some missions.

"Part of the reason Antarctica is vulnerable to strategic competition is that countries already have a scientific presence there that could easily be transformed into a military presence," explained an article by Foreign Affairs. 

'The system operates on trust, presenting a ripe opportunity for abuse'

In this context, the countries involved seem to be comfortable with this constant flirtation with rule-breaking.

Operations that go against the spirit of the Antarctic Treaty are increasingly common, such as explorations to map the existence of hydrocarbons and minerals. Under the pretext of scientific research, Antarctica's most valuable resources are innocently being quantified and located... just in case. At this point, the country that stands out is China.

The government of Xi Jinping has the natural resources of the South Pole very much in its sights and does not seem willing to leave anything to chance before 2049. The detail is found in the country's five-year plan published in March 2021, in which Beijing argues that it expressed that it would "raise its ability to participate in the protection and utilization of the South Pole."

In a conversation with The Post, specialist Anne-Marie Brady documented some of China's attempts to map coal reserves and submarine metal deposits between Africa and Antarctica, as well as other undeclared mineral exploration activities in an area claimed by Australia.

In turn, the Center for Strategic International Studies indicated that the facilities and growing Chinese expeditions "may pave the way for China to have a greater say in the future governance of the region ... [and] an opportunity to shape future rules around mineral resource."

In 2019, China proposed establishing a Specially Managed Area in Antarctica, designed to allow a country to restrict and dictate access to protect its scientific research agenda. Although the request was rejected, it highlighted the country's ambitions in the South Pole.

Other countries with clear ambitions in the region are Russia and Iran. In the case of the former, its expeditions in the Weddell Sea have increased significantly. According to an official statement, the purpose is none other than to "study of the mineral and hydrocarbon potential of Antarctica and its prospects," according to an official statement.

As for Tehran, its navy commander, Shahram Irani, recently announced plans to build a permanent base in Antarctica, going so far as to claim that Iran somehow had "property rights" in the South Pole.

The race to 2049

For the time being, the world powers are opting to map the resources of the South Pole and skirt treaty non-compliance. But with an eye on 2049, the year in which the treaty will come to an end and negotiations will be renewed or adapted to current times.

The treaty is the only thing preventing countries from rushing for the region's natural resources, which leads one to believe that, as that seemingly distant year draws near, the race for control of the Arctic and Antarctic will, paradoxically, be heating up.