Demographic winter: US threatened by plummeting fertility rate

A new scientific study focuses on the dangerous fertility crisis that the United States and much of the planet have been experiencing since the 1960s. Fewer and fewer children are being born, which could threaten society with new economic challenges when it comes to pension systems and social services.

According to the Global Burden of Disease 2021, a study led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) from the University of Washington found that the fertility rate, which measures generational replacement, went from 3.65 in 1960 to 1.64 in 2020. These are historical lows. This could be due to people's new habits and aspirations. Americans on average are having fewer children, getting married later or are not getting married at all. This is due to economic uncertainty and cultural changes.

This trend is widespread throughout the world. The global fertility rate (GFR), which measures the average number of children a woman gives birth to in her entire life, went from 4.84 points in 1950 to only 2.23 in 2021. That is to say, globally, the earth is 24-tenths away from moving to a negative replacement rate, which reduces the number of people on the planet. According to the IHME, only 94 countries and territories are above the replacement level (2.1 children per woman), with a significant concentration in sub-Saharan Africa.

Global demographic gap

The report claims that by 2050, there will be a severe demographic gap between developed and high-income countries and underdeveloped ones, as is the case of several in Africa.

Dr. Teresa Castro Martín, a professor at the Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography of the Spanish National Research Council said in a statement from the Science Media Centred, later reported by CNN, "Globally, births will be increasingly concentrated in the areas of the world most vulnerable to climate change, resource scarcity, political instability, poverty and infant mortality."

Demographic movements originating in underdeveloped countries are heading towards Western countries. This could significantly expand in the future. This has the potential to completely remodel societies, including those in North America. According to the Pew Research Center, immigrants and their descendants will account for significant growth in the U.S. population between 2015 and 2065, eventually offsetting declining birth rates among native-born Americans.

Challenges for the economic model

The aging population, a consequence of low fertility rates, poses challenges to the United States, especially in areas such as health, social security and the welfare state. The study predicts that as the population ages, demand for healthcare and retiree support services will increase, putting existing systems to the test. By 2030, 20% of the entire nation will be of retirement age and anyone born during the baby boom will be over the age of 64.

The decline in the workforce due to declining fertility rates could lead to labor shortages in key industries, affecting sectors such as healthcare, technology and manufacturing. This could hamper economic growth and innovation, affecting the country's competitiveness on the global stage.

Policymakers are being challenged to develop strategies to address these demographic trends, including policies to support working families and improve access to child care and healthcare.

Another solution that scientists are considering involves implementing "ethical and efficient" immigration management. However, to achieve this, there is a need for public policies that are aligned with the economic and social needs of the community. Disorderly immigration, which places undue financial strain on taxpayers without contributing to the country's growth and development, interferes with this goal.

However, given that the problem is global, the use of young, foreign labor is a questionable long-term solution. This is especially true if you take into account the cultural replacement problems it can generate.