Presidential Elections 2024
The battle of the polls heats up in swing states
The Trafalgar Group gives Trump the edge in six of the seven key states while Cook Political Report reveals the opposite. Both polls indicate that Kamala Harris has the lead in Nevada and Trump is ahead in Georgia.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris greet each other before the start of the ABC debate.
With 33 days to go before the election, the race for the White House is tighter than ever and the battle of the polls reflects this. The Trafalgar Group polls show that Donald Trump has the lead in six of the seven swing states while Cook Political Report (CPR) shows the same with Kamala Harris. Both polls indicate that Kamala Harris has the lead in Nevada and Trump is ahead in Georgia. According to Real Clear Politics, the Democratic candidate has a 2.2 point lead in the popular vote while Trump remains ahead in the Electoral College.
Trafalgar: Trump wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia
In separate polls released yesterday, the Trafalgar Group indicated that Trump leads by a tight margin in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the Wolverine State, the former president has a 2.2-point lead over Harris (46.9-44.7%), while in Wisconsin the margin is just over one point (47.1-46%).
According to polls released throughout September, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania by 2.2 points (47.5-45.3%), in Arizona by 1.6 (47.1-45.5%), in North Carolina by 2.4 points (48.4-46%) and in Georgia by 1.7 (46.2-44.5%). Nevada is the only state where Harris is ahead with a 1.8-point lead (45.3-43.5%).
RCP: Harris ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada
The last two states are the only ones in which the data collected by Trafalgar and CPR coincide. In the case of the latter, the Republican leads Georgia by two points (47-49%) and Harris does the same in Nevada by one (48-47%).
From here the differences are notable. According to RCP, Harris is the favorite in the remaining five states. Specifically, the vice president has a three point lead in Michigan (51-48%), while in Arizona (50-48%) and Wisconsin (49-47%) she has a two point lead. The Democratic candidate has a one-point lead in Pennsylvania (50-49%).
Trump has the lead in Electoral College votes
According to Real Clear Politics, Kamala Harris again has the largest lead over Trump (2.2 points) since she pulled off the coup that knocked Joe Biden out of the presidential race. However, the average of RCP's polls indicates that the Republican is ahead in the number of Electoral College votes (281-257), which would allow him to retake the Oval Office.
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