Trump tops Biden in seven key swing states

Former President Donald Trump is projected to win all the swing states in a head-to-head with President Biden, according to a recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. Although neither the GOP nor Democratic Party primaries have yet been held, both candidates seem on track to obtain the nominations of their respective parties. If this forecast indeed comes true, the latest Bloomberg poll ensures that Trump would win by 5% in the seven swing states as a whole, with 47% support, compared to just 42% for Biden. In five of them, the Republican's advantage does not exceed the margin of error (between 3% and 5%): Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Georgia and North Carolina, the margin is greater, reaching 6% in the former and 9% in the latter.

Trump's advantage widens when independent and third-party candidates are included. Thirteen percent said they would probably vote for independent candidates, with 9% of these respondents supporting Kennedy Jr. When considering all candidates for the presidency, the former president surpasses the current president by 7% .

The pollster explained that it is the first time that Trump has won Michigan since it began conducting the poll in October. The Republican won this battleground state in 2016 but lost in 2020. The Wolverine State was one of the most resilient in the pro-Trump trend revealed by recent polls. Even last month's polls, such as one from Emerson College, showed Biden leading by two points. Another from Morning Consult, which for the first time included Kennedy Jr., predicted a tie.

Dissatisfied bases

The very Democrats who gave Biden the presidency in 2020 are disenchanted. Some 23% say they have an unfavorable view of the president. Another recent Morning Consult poll explained that "Biden is trailing Trump because fewer voters from his winning 2020 coalition are coalescing behind his re-election bid":

What's more, nearly 20% of Democrats said they support the impeachment inquiry against Biden for, allegedly, having benefited from his son Hunter Biden's illegal businesses abroad.

The economy

Voters in these seven key states trust Trump more than Biden to get the economy back on track, an issue they consider the most important ahead of the elections. More than half opted for the Republican candidate, while just over 30% preferred the Democrat.

Among economic issues, the price of everyday goods was the priority of three out of five voters. However, in recent months, the number of those who claim to have noticed the rise in these prices has fallen. Respondents have a better image of their state's economies than the national one, a result that Bloomberg cites as evidence that they are seeing a local economic recovery. Democrats will see this as a favorable conclusion, with the party concerned about the unpopularity of Biden's economic policy and divided on how to win over the electorate.