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Midterms: internal migration of people of different races could change political trends in states

'Purple' states are more likely to turn 'blue' in the upcoming election. This is due to migration fleeing Democratic states to Republican or swing states.

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Published by
Verónica Silveri Pazos

Data from the Census Bureau, reviewed by Redfin, shows that due to the pandemic, the increase in internal migration in the country is generating a change in political tendencies that could determine the upcoming midterm elections.

Statistics show that white voters are more likely to elect Republicans than Black, Hispanic and Asian voters, although some data suggests greater support for the GOP among minority groups, especially Hispanics.

The real estate company argues that the main reason for the change is the migration coming from the blue (Democratic-leaning) states, where more people of "diverse" races tend to reside, such as Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians to red (Republican) states, where more white citizens live and to purple swing states, where the population is mixed and either party has a chance to win:

Pandemic-driven migration to red and purple states has made them somewhat less white. Increased diversity could shift some results from purple states to become Democratic in the midterm elections.

More than 300,000 new inhabitants

Redfin says red and purple states are one percentage point less white than they were before the pandemic. Republican states gained around 340,000 residents in 2021. Purple states gained about 289,000 residents. This is, in both cases, the largest increase in diverse migration in the last 10 years:

The data shows that more people moved to red and purple states last year than in any other year in a decade.

According to Redfin's Deputy Chief Economist, Taylor Marr, the increase in citizens of other races residing in red states "isn't big enough to to turn solidly red places blue, but it could move the needle in purple areas...These changes in racial composition are small but noteworthy":

The Republican Party is steadily gaining momentum.... The pandemic-driven wave of relocation to suburbs and rural areas, which tend to lean more conservative than city centers, made those toss-up places more diverse. The demographic shift isn't big enough to turn solidly red places blue, but it could move the needle in purple areas.... These changes in racial makeup are small but noteworthy....

The purple states with the least amount of white voters according to Redfin, are: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin:

Purple counties in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, all key to this year's Senate elections, gained thousands of residents and became more diverse during the pandemic. Like the nation as a whole, migration to these states could favor either Democrats and Republicans.

Democratic states lose population

Blue states followed the opposite trend of red and purple counties, losing about 127,000 residents in 2021. The is the largest population decline in at least the last decade due to the pandemic and other factors such as the economic crisis, insecurity, immigration, high taxes and progressive measures imposed by its Democratic politicians, which makes life more complicated for people.

For the most part, blue states became less white than they were before the pandemic, which means they will not lose their tendency to vote Democratic.

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