A stormy 2024: these 8 events could define the year

2023 was a tremendously turbulent year overflowing with news. The continuation of the war in Ukraine, devastating earthquakes and the Hamas invasion of Israel. As for the United States, the corruption of the presidential family, the persecution against former President Trump and the endless woke delirium determined much of last year. However, one might think that everything that happened only paves the way for what promises to be one of the stormiest years of the last decade.

On his X account, podcaster and commentator Lex Fridman wrote, just on December 31 of last year: "2024 is going to be intense, so buckle up."

"Major wars, presidential elections, the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence, etc.," he added.

Without a doubt, some of the issues Fridman mentions will be decisive this year. However, we would add some, which we will comment on below—along with those mentioned by the podcaster.

1 - The war in Ukraine

As two years pass since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, there is nothing to indicate that tensions will ease. Just on New Year's Eve, a forceful Russian offensive left major wounds in Ukraine.

Although it no longer steals the covers, the war in Ukraine continues its course, just as bloody as before. President Zelensky, meanwhile, has lost popularity in international public opinion, but maintains his efforts to seek support and financing for his troops.

The war in Ukraine has also caused a divide amongst the rest of the nations and pushes Putin's hostility to other areas, which brings us to the next major concern.

2 - The war in the Middle East

What began on October 7 of last year as the Hamas invasion of Israel, which caused the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, has transcended to emerge as a complex conflict throughout the Middle East.

So far international participation has been limited to some US aid to Israel, the launch of missiles towards Israel by the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the occasional exchange in southern Lebanon. However, the threat of the conflict escalating has been alive from the beginning and today is more latent than ever.

The conflict in Israel is never isolated. Above all, because the war against Israel has been marked by being irregular, where proxies intervene. Behind most of Israel's enemies is Iran, whose main purpose is to end the Jewish State and for that it turns to different terrorist groups.

Today it seems imminent that the terrorist group Hezbollah, a determining factor in Lebanon, will get involved, especially after Israel eliminated one of the founders of Hamas, who was in Beirut.

By explicitly getting Hezbollah involved, we would be talking about a conflict, not only in the Red Sea, with the Houthi attacks, and in Gaza and the West Bank, but also in Lebanon, probably Syria and, eventually, with the participation of the Iranian theocracy. All this could explode this year, if the trend continues.

3 - Presidential elections in the United States

The presidential election in the United States is, without exaggeration, the most important electoral process in the free world. Who occupies the White House defines the world, even in a period in which we are experiencing the decline of the United States, largely thanks to current President Joe Biden and the legacy left by the presidencies of Barack Obama.

These presidential elections, however, have a component that makes them more interesting. The main Republican bet, who is emerging as Joe Biden's adversary in November, former President Donald Trump, faces an unprecedented judicial persecution that seeks to remove him from the game.

The paradox is that each new investigation or process against him causes the opposite effect to the desired one. Trump has strengthened himself as a candidate and today there is no rival within the Republican Party who even overshadows him.

With Joe Biden's popularity decline, the return of a Republican to the White House seems imminent. However, due to the hatred that the left has for former President Trump, and the desire to prevent his return at the cost of anything (literally anything), no one could claim that this year's election is decided.

4 - Tensions in Asia

China is the great power rising, ready to conquer world supremacy. While China's advance in influence will likely continue to occupy the coverage this year, there is an underlying possibility that Xi Jinping's communist regime will finally invade the island of Taiwan.

In light of what happened in Ukraine, it is likely that Xi Jinping will gradually assume that he has a kind of carte blanche to take over Taiwan, the country that China sees as its own and whose government it calls a traitor.

Although China's ambitions are crude - since the Kuomintang took refuge on the island of Taiwan in 1949 after the triumph of the Communist Party - for a few years now the Xi regime has been carrying out clearly intimidating maneuvers in the territory it claims.

The message is clear: at any moment China could claim what it considers to be its own. So far, President Biden has expressed his unconditional support for Taiwan, but it is uncertain whether an invasion would have a global scale effect. For example, Ukraine, where US support has been limited to weapons and a lot of money.

5 - Artificial Intelligence

As Lex Fridman himself mentions, the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence is not only one of the great concerns of the moment but also promises to be an event this year.

In November 2022, the company OpenAI showed us what it is capable of, with the launch of its ChatGPT chatbot application. The surprising evolution of ChatGPT and the development of other artificial intelligences demonstrate the speed at which the world of technology is moving.

As many have warned, such as Elon Musk himself and one of the founders of OpenAI and developer of ChatGPT, Sam Altman, Artificial Intelligence can be used for both good and evil. And, as for the last, it is clear that the future of humanity is at risk.

Just a few weeks ago, in the context of the crisis within OpenAI and the dismissal and then reinstatement of Sam Altman, members of the company's staff revealed that they are developing an Artificial Intelligence capable of solving mathematical equations and intuiting problems. By revealing this information, the OpenAI staff denounced the potential risk it implies for humanity.

6 - Elections in Venezuela

It is not yet known what is going to happen, because in Venezuela everything is uncertain, but what can be assured is that this promises to be a very significant year in the country governed by Nicolás Maduro.

With the unstoppable rise of opposition leader María Corina Machado, ready to fight for free and transparent presidential elections this year as established by the Constitution, and a regime willing to do anything to maintain power, conflict seems inevitable.

The United States has also become involved in recent months with the negotiations it is carrying out with the Maduro regime. In fact, in the fall of last year, President Joe Biden decided to lift sanctions on the Chavista regime in exchange for supposedly beginning a process of democratic opening.

Everything indicates that, unlike Washington, Caracas is not willing to give up what is necessary. Although, a couple of weeks ago it released a group of political prisoners in exchange for the United States handing over Alex Saab, a businessman who ended up becoming the front man for Nicolás Maduro and one of the most corrupt people in Venezuela.

7 - Troubled administrations in Latin America

The Latin American country most susceptible to a crisis, due to its current president, is Colombia. Since he arrived, Gustavo Petro has not escaped scandals, whether corruption or management of his government. In addition to this, its socialist policies threaten to plunge Colombia into a state of economic crisis and extremely high conflict.

Under his government, there have already been several massacres and the resurgence of communist guerrillas and drug trafficking groups in Colombia. In that sense, just as it did in 2023, it is likely that Colombia will give the world a lot to talk about in 2024.

Argentina will also give the world something to talk about, but for the opposite reason. Its new libertarian president, Javier Milei, arrives with the intention of completely repairing the economic disaster, in which one of the most depressed countries in the Western Hemisphere finds itself, with a series of shocking policies.

Milei, who in himself is a particular and very controversial character, has the will to apply his methods, even despite threats from the left, which has said that it will take to the streets of the country if the new president insists on reforms. For this reason, conflict also seems inevitable in Argentina.

8 - Immigration in Europe

Finally, although the immigration problem is also decisive in the United States, in Europe it could have ruinous consequences due to the origin of the majority of illegal immigrants.

Today in most European countries the great concern is the rapid increase in Muslim populations due to the massive arrival of refugees and the high birth rates of the new Arab communities.

Today, in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, the reappearance of antisemitism on a global scale and the solidification of Arab nationalism, it is likely that the massive flow of Muslim immigrants will have serious consequences for European societies. We could speculate it will be the great topic of discussion this year in Europe.