Democratic crisis? Early voting is down 45% from 2020

Democrats have a serious problem heading into the upcoming presidential election in November: early voting is declining relative to 2020, and Republicans are improving their performance with mail-in votes.

In 2020, the pandemic spurred early voting, with more than 158 million Americans choosing to vote by mail. Most of those voters were Democrats and favored Joe Biden, who emerged victorious after winning by narrow margins in several key states. The massive early turnout was so decisive that, even though Donald Trump dominated on Election Day in key states, the Democratic candidate sustained his triumph thanks to the votes he received in advance and the vast number of mail-in ballots requested nationwide. This year, it appears that history will not repeat itself.

According to an analysis by the New York Post, which cites data published by Republican political strategist John Couvillon, early voting, compared to the same point in the 2020 election, has dropped 45% so far.

In fact, only 4.2 million Americans exercised their vote for now. However, that number is expected to increase considerably over the next few weeks, as some states will mail in their ballots and others will open in-person early voting centers. Nonetheless, turnout looks unlikely to be as massive as in 2020, and that's a serious problem for Democrats, who are also seeing Republicans improve their early voting performance.

According to the NYP analysis, Virginia is one of the few states maintaining a similar turnout as in 2020 and is experiencing an increase in mail-in ballot requests in rural counties where Trump prevailed.

Data shows that far more votes have been cast in more Republican congressional districts than in safe Democratic seats.

"A comparison of deeply Democratic, college-educated Northern Virginia with deeply Republican, non-college white areas of rural Virginia paints an even starker picture," reads the NYP. "The inner DC suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria each gave Biden more than 80% of the vote, yet the number of early votes cast in each is less than half that counted at the same point four years ago."

However, the situation is diametrically opposed in the rural counties where Trump swept, as turnout is higher compared to 2020.

According to the NYP, mail-in ballot requests have significantly declined, falling 58% from 2020 in states that do not send mail-in ballots to all voters.

This decline is notable in two key states such as Georgia and North Carolina, with drops of 84% and 75% respectively.

Likewise, although the drop is smaller, the decline is also noticeable in the Midwest: 59% in Wisconsin, 36% in Pennsylvania and 24% in Michigan.