Mitch McConnell has already set in motion his plan to take back the Senate in 2024. The current minority leader assured that he already has a list of states where the GOP will compete "heavily" to unseat the Democrats. These are West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with two other additions depending on how "right" the candidates are.
The senator from Kentucky expressed his views on the matter in an interview with CNN in which he assured that both the leadership and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will "be involved in any primary where that seems to be necessary to get a high-quality candidate, and we'll be involved in every general election where we have a legitimate shot of winning — regardless of the philosophy of the nominee."
West Virginia
West Virginia appears to be one of the most attractive of the four listed. After months of negotiations, Senator McConnell succeeded in summoning Governor Jim Justice to appear. He happens to be the best-performing candidate in the polls against the possible candidacy of Joe Manchin, who will announce his plans at the end of the year.
Justice's recruitment aligns with the GOP's plan to have autonomous Senate candidates. He is the wealthiest person in West Virginia due to his emporium of 94 companies, among them The Greenbrier, a luxury hotel in White Sulphur Springs.
"What we do know about West Virginia is it's very, very red, and we have an extremely popular incumbent governor who's announced for the Senate. And we're going to go all-out to win it," McConnell added in a conversation with CNN.
Donald Trump carried the state by 38.9 percentage points in 2020. If that margin of victory is repeated for the Republican candidate, Manchin, or whoever the Democratic candidate is, would have to get nearly 40% of the electorate to vote for the GOP for president and a Democrat for Senate.
Montana
Montana is another red state with a Democratic incumbent: Jon Tester. The current senator came to the Upper House in 2006 and has habitually turned the state blue every four years ever since.
A farmer and former music teacher, he won re-election in 2012, increasing his margin of advantage, which he stretched further in his third run in 2018. According to GovTrack, he is the fourth most moderate Democrat in the Upper House, behind only Joe Manchin, Raphael Warnock and Maggie Hassan.
Tester is the most popular among Democratic senators seeking re-election in 2024. According to Morning Consult, he has a 60% positive and 30% negative image, which also places him as the eighth most popular member of the Senate.
Congressmen Ryan Zinke and Matt Rossendale have expressed interest in running for the seat, as has Attorney General Austin Knudsen. However, the equation would change outright if Governor Greg Gianforte enters the race, as he is seen as potentially the strongest candidate.
Pennsylvania
Many political analysts and lawmakers, including Ted Cruz, Ben Shapiro and Ethan Kelly, agree that the GOP was only 900 votes away from winning Pennsylvania in 2022. Although John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz by nearly 300,000 votes, those three figures separated Dave McCormick from being the Republican nominee in that election.
The former official of the administration of George W. Bush seems to have clear intentions of returning to fight for a seat in the Upper House, and he demonstrated this with the launch of his new book, Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America which will take him on a tour of Pennsylvania throughout 2023.
A favorite of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the group invited him as a keynote speaker during the February winter meeting, and even Steve Daines (NRSC chairman) called him a strong candidate.
Another who has appeared as a candidate is Doug Mastriano, the former state senator who lost the governorship in 2022 by nearly 15 percentage points. His profile is different from McCormick's, and Pennsylvania Republicans do not seem to be very happy with his possible candidacy, and neither does Donald Trump. Despite endorsing him in 2022, he would hesitate about a second run. "Trump is no fool. He knows Mastriano will hurt him in Pennsylvania.", a prominent Republican donor confessed to POLITICO. "He regrets endorsing him [in 2022]," a Trump adviser who was granted anonymity to speak openly told the same media outlet, "He says, 'Doug blew it.'"
Similarly, the Keystone State has perhaps the strongest incumbent Democrat in Bob Casey Jr. He is a son of the former governor, served in several statewide positions, and will seek his fourth consecutive term in the Senate. His last election was in 2018 when he won comfortably in a blue wave.
Ohio
Donald Trump won there in 2016 and 2020 by eight percentage points, while J.D. Vance won by 6 points in 2022. Many analysts see this election as the perfect opportunity for the GOP to pick up the Buckeye State's two senators, as the election will be tied to the presidential one, and this would be a natural carryover for the Republican trying to dethrone Sherrod Brown.
So far, only State Senator Matt Dolan has announced his intention to challenge the incumbent, who took office in 2007. Dolan could be described as a Governor Mike DeWine-style candidate and confessed that he was the first to announce his candidacy to gain more name recognition.
Congressman Warren Davidson and Attorney General Frank LaRose have also publicly expressed interest in reaching the Upper House.
