"Biden is pretty safe in the Democratic primary," said Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights. According to the company’s latest survey, the president would easily beat his current contenders (Robert F. Kennedy by 52% and Marianne Williamson by 58%).
The poll also revealed that Biden would beat several "hypothetical candidates.” These are Democratic politicians who did not join the race and who "are unlikely" to do so. One example is Vice President Kamala Harris, who would win 26% of the votes compares to Biden’s 57%.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is another prominent party figure who would fall by the wayside. Newsom has taken several measures that indicate he is interesting in running. He has recently held a few events to raise money for his potential campaign. He also recently challenged one of the GOP’s main candidates, Ron DeSantis, to face off in a televised debate. According to the poll, however, he will have to ramp things up. As of right now, he would only have 25% of the votes compared to Biden's 49%.
Not even former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would beat the president (she would lose 34% to 48%). Neither would Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (30% to 47%). Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (10% to 63%) and former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio (9% to 48%) would be defeated by an even greater margin.
Michelle Obama is the only one who could beat Biden in the primaries. The Center Square, the website that put together the poll, reported that the former first lady would get 48% of the votes. She would have the support of women, those under 55, moderate Democrats and both childless voters and parents of minors. Biden would get 36% putting him 12% behind Obama.
Therefore, the CEO of Noble Predictive Insights says that although it seems that the president has secured the nomination: "He'd better make sure Michelle Obama is on his Christmas card list."
Weak spots
According to the same poll, the president's biggest weaknesses are voters between the ages of 18 and 34, Americans who believe crime is out of control and Southwestern Democrats.
In addition, Biden, or whoever wins the nomination, will need to re-attract two groups that are gradually moving away from the Democratic Party: Hispanics and Blacks.
El creciente voto hispano, una oportunidad para el GOP en 2024 #Política https://t.co/7mTshPv2x2
— VOZ (@VozMediaUSA) August 19, 2023
