Brazil faces battle for votes between Lula and Bolsonaro

On October 2, Brazil will face the final confrontation of the battle for the presidency between the current president, Jair Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva. It is a battle in an almost literal sense, due to the belligerent and aggressive language of the candidates, as well as the climate of violence among their supporters. According to the latest polls, the former president faces the final stretch with a wide lead, up to 16 points, over Bolsonaro.

According to polls published on September 19 by the Ipec Institute, Lula's Workers' Party could get up to 47% of the votes in the first round, compared to 31% for the captain's Liberal Party in the reserve. The possibility of a third fades away as former minister Ciro Gomes from the center-left remains at 7%. As a result of this data, many national and international voices (including former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa) are calling on Gomes to join Da Silva's project or even to withdraw from the presidential race.

If a second round were necessary, the polls say that Lula would win with 54% of the votes versus 38% for the current president. However, experts recommend to exercise caution and not rule out the possibility of a surprise.

Three out of four voters fear politically motivated aggression

The situation in the country in the run-up to these elections is calm but tense. In one of the most violent countries in the world, three out of four voters say they are afraid of being assaulted for political reasons at the moment, according to a Datafolha survey, a fear that the contenders themselves are contributing to increase with their proclamations, attacks on their rivals and their gestures. For example, Lula's team announced that he would campaign with a bulletproof vest on.

Experts condemn that both have turned the political debate into a conflict. This is what Vera Chaia, professor of political science at the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo, explained to BBC: "With the enemy you have no dialogue, you do not respect the other. That is what is happening."

From adversary to enemy

"That's what's happening" on both sides. Lula defined these elections as a contest of "democracy against fascism" and called his opponent "genocidal" for his response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro defined the elections as "a struggle of good against evil" and identifying himself as the candidate with conservative and Christian values. He also described Lula as a "thief" and warned that the former president will turn Brazil into Venezuela.

The escalation of verbal violence increased after shutting down alliances between left-wing candidates. Bolsonaro 'celebrated' this milestone since "a single shot kills everyone, or a grenadite." For the current president, these words "do not stimulate violence." This is not shared by Lula, who accused the president of provoking of one of his supporter's death after a political argument in the state of Mato Grosso.

Concern about employment, inflation and health care

Who will lead the country for the next four years is not the only concern among Brazilians. In fact, surveys by various institutes indicate that the main fears of citizens have economic undertones. Thus, unemployment, inflation and, somewhat further away, health are the main issues that keep them awake at night.

The situation is really complicated. A study from the Brazilian Food and Nutritional Sovereignty and Security Research Network (Rede Penssan) indicates that 15% of the population (about 33 million people) suffer from severe hunger. This is 14% more than a year ago. In addition, the number of people with food insecurity amounts to 125 million (58% of the population).

Lula's era evoked as a time of splendor and economic wellbeing

Brazil's economy, which went into recession during the pandemic, is now recovering and the unemployment rate has even dropped to 9.1%. However, the population still does not feel the green shoots and the general perception is negative. In these moments "of anguish," in Chaia's words, many remember Lula's term as a golden age of growth and welfare.

Something that Bolsonaro's team is trying to blur, recalling the conviction of the former president and his time in prison, whose convictions were finally overturned by the Supreme Court, as well as the corruption that ended up costing Lula's successor, Dilma Rouseff, her job. The former captain is underlining the message that corruption during Dilma's presidency has its basis in Lula's term.

In addition to words, Bolsonaro increased the Auxilio Brasil program for the poor by 50% in August. Now, those who are the most in need can receive up to 600 reais (about $115) per person.

Will Bolsonaro accept defeat?

Added to all this is an important element of uncertainty. Doubts are growing as to whether Bolsonaro would accept defeat and step aside or cling to power by alleging voting fraud. Although he has somewhat moderated his discourse, the president has spent the campaign doubting the reliability of the polls and criticizing the reliability of the national electoral system. When asked directly whether he would recognize the result of the polls, he replied: "yes, as long as they are clean."