Midterm Danger: Trump and GOP see faltering economy and Hispanic support key to 2024 win

The economy and the Hispanic vote were two of the pillars on which the Republican trifecta was built in 2024. Less than two years later, polls indicate that these two key points are faltering ahead of midterm elections in which  conservatives are trailing in voting intention according to the polls. It remains to be seen whether the movements in red states with gerrymandering will allow the GOP to overcome the predictions or whether Donald Trump and Republican leaders manage to pull off a public-enthusing upset.

The latest CBS poll shows that two out of three Hispanic voters disapprove of Donald Trump's performance. Among them, 55% disapprove "strongly," while 11% disapprove "somewhat."

Support among Latino voters stands at 34%, with strong backing from 20% and moderate approval from 14%. These figures, while they might be acceptable at other times, are insufficient to maintain control of Congress.

Trump's economic management, under the magnifying glass of voters

Especially because support for another of the Republican Party's greatest assets, economic management, is also in jeopardy. At the moment, 67% of voters disapprove of the Republican administration's performance. That dissatisfaction rises to 71% among Hispanics.

The numbers are even worse when it comes to the handling of inflation, which has soared again as a result of the effects of the Iran war. A total of 73% disapprove of Donald Trump's performance, a figure that rises to 76% among Latinos.

77% of Hispanics have a negative outlook on economic conditions

As for the state of the national economy, 64% consider it bad. The worst news is that a majority 35% believe it is "very bad" and 29% say it is "bad." Again, Hispanic voters go further in their criticism, with 46% rating the situation as "very bad" and 31% as "bad." In other words, 77% of Latinos have a negative perception of the economic situation.

Expectations for the future are not rosy either. The majority 34% fear an end to the recession, while the second-largest group 25% believe it will slow down without reaching negative growth. On this occasion, Hispanics are somewhat less pessimistic, with only 33% fearing a recession and 26% expecting a slowdown.

Pocketbooks give the GOP some breathing room, with a slight majority believing the situation is at least "fairly good"

When it comes to taxpayers' pocketbooks, the situation is more even and offers some respite to the GOP. The majority, 42%, consider their situation "fairly good," which is higher than the sum of the 27% who consider it "fairly bad" and the 17% who see it as "very bad."

That optimism does not extend to Hispanics. Although a majority, 37%, believe their personal situation is "fairly good," the balance of positive and negative feelings leans negative, with 48% of Latinos saying their finances are going badly compared with 45% who say they are going well.

Most voters, "frustrated" or "angry" about the economy

All of this makes a majority of voters "frustrated" (38%) and even "angry" (32%) with Trump's economic management. Among Hispanics, fewer are "angry" (30%), but more are "frustrated" (42%).

These figures send a strong message to the Republican Party if it wants to keep control of the House and Senate, and they reinforce the message of numerous legislators, including Trump himself, who emphasize the economic achievements of the administration so far this term.