Hispanics not jumping on Kamala Harris' train

Hispanic voters have not been impressed by the media and political hype of the Kamala Harris wave. This is evidenced by her poll numbers, which continue to fall far short of those of her Democratic predecessors, including those of Joe Biden in 2020 with whom she shared an electoral ticket. By contrast, Donald Trump's support among Latinos continues to rise, especially after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed the Republican candidate.

With the exception of 2004, Blue Party hopefuls had always had a lead of about 35 points over their conservative opponents. Something that began to change with the mandate of Donald Trump, who made a good number of Latinos change their minds. Thus, Biden had to settle in 2020 with the support at the polls of 60% of voters in this community, while the former president reached 37%. A 23% difference, 12 points below the usual voting direction to date.

The weight of the Hispanic vote continues to grow

In these four years, the weight of the Hispanic vote has grown notably. By November, the number of Latinos who are called to the polls has risen to 36 million, a figure that cannot be taken lightly by anyone who intends to reach the White House. For this reason, the Democratic Party and groups close to them began to invest millions of dollars in trying to improve their image among members of this community. The ascent of Kamala Harris after the coup against her boss in July seemed like a golden opportunity to turn the situation around, but it has not been the case.

Moreover, all polls indicate a significant decline in support for the Democratic Party among Hispanics. The most compelling data comes from the latest Quinnipiac University poll, which shows a surge in support for the conservative candidate within this ethnic group. Fifty-two percent of Latino respondents expressed a preference for Trump, compared to 46% who intend to vote for Harris. Even with the inclusion of minority challengers, Trump's numbers remain stable, while the vice president's support drops to 42%. The previous month, Quinnipiac itself indicated a 48-point tie between the two.

Hispanic support for Trump doesn't suffer despite Democratic nominee shift

The latest edition of The Cook Political Report's national polling average showed that Kamala Harris had 53.6% voting intention among Hispanics. However, her distance with Trump is barely 11 points, compared to the 23 with which Biden beat the Republican magnate four years ago. Moreover, this poll indicates that the rise of the vice president had barely affected the GOP candidate with respect to Biden. In fact, he had risen a minuscule 0.1%.

Numbers that are repeated in other polls. For example, Pew Research Center showed a 7-point drop in the difference between the two contenders with respect to Biden's records. With the still-president, 61% of Hispanics were betting on the Democrats, but with Kamala it has dropped to 57%, while backing for Trump increased by three points, to 39%.

Neither does The New York Times leave good news for its preferred candidate. According to the poll released with Siena last week, Trump has gained 3 points since July, while Kamala Harris has lost 9. In September, the vice president had 51% of Hispanic voters' support, up from 60% in the previous edition. Trump, meanwhile, was at 39%, up from 36% in the seventh month of the year.

Latinos trust Trump more to handle their top concerns

While many voters have been impressed by the Democratic chroma-switching, and even seem to buy Kamala's revised and white-washed version of history, Hispanics are clear about their interests. Especially because they do not forget the economic situation and the invasion of illegal immigrants that make up the Biden-Harris legacy. Precisely these are the two main concerns of this ethnic group, and they overwhelmingly trust Trump more than Harris to manage it.