Age, policy and performance: Pre-debate polls overshadow Biden's outlook

With four months to go before the election, Joe Biden continues to lag behind Donald Trump. Worse yet for the Democrat, as his approval rating worsens month by month. Trump's is going the opposite direction, according to the latest Gallup poll. Biden hopes Thursday's debate will be a turning point.

The former president has a favorable image with 46% of respondents, up 4% since December. It is his highest mark since April 2020. Biden, on the other hand, fell four points and stands at 37%. This is his lowest point since 2017, when, Gallup recalls, "he was unknown to many Americans."

Inside the party lines, Republicans are more satisfied with their nominee (79%) than Democrats (42%). Moreover, within the ranks of the latter, a majority would prefer another candidate to run (56%).

Both Trump and Biden lost favor within their own parties. Between the elections four years ago and now, Biden lost 14% and Trump 2% support.

A matter of character, policy and ideology

Less than half of Americans believe either Biden or Trump has the leadership qualities or personality to occupy the Oval Office.

Trump (46%) also has an advantage on this point over his opponent (38%). The former president improved Americans' opinion of him, rising more than 10%.

The Democrat's age, 81, may have an impact on this. One of the main concerns of Biden's team is to avoid some episode or exchange in the debate reinforcing the idea that he is "too old to be president (67%)".

Although the Republican is only three years younger, only about half of Americans think his age is a handicap.

One of the Democratic campaign's strategies for resolving the age issue is to downplay it when it arises, diverting the debate to policy. It doesn't matter how old the candidates are, one must look at their policies, what they have done and what they are proposing. That may end up being less helpful than they expect: six out of 10 Americans disagree with Biden on key issues.

His main challenger, by contrast, has nearly half (49%) of voters in agreement. The same number disapprove of his stance on the issues he considers most important. While party affiliation is almost directly correlated with agreement on issues (93% for Biden and 81% for Trump), the former president finds more agreement among independents (46%) than Biden (34%).

Likewise, a majority of Americans (56%) say the Democrat is too progressive. Only 10% believe his ideas are the right ones. Fewer voters (44%) think Trump is too conservative and a considerably higher percentage (38%) believe his ideas are the right ones.

The problem of job performance

Gallup's job approval rating also serves as no relief for the president. At a steady 38% approval, he stands "well below the 48%+ threshold all reelected incumbents in the modern era have had at the time of the election."

While his results within the Democratic Party are similar to what Barack Obama and Bill Clinton had when they won re-election, his performance with independents and Republicans is significantly worse.

The historically low support he has among independents (5%) is especially worrisome for his campaign, because this is the group of voters he will have to try to seduce in the debate and the remainder of the campaign.

One piece of good news for Biden is that, within his own party, the job approval of presidents seeking reelection usually rises between August and early September as the national conventions approach. Thus, it could rise, per Gallup projections, from 83% to 88%.

However, the same data show that the debates, generally in late September or October, move little support within party ranks. The candidates' face-to-face this Thursday, therefore, will be an opportunity for Biden to speak to unconvinced voters who are not firmly aligned to the Democratic Party. Trump will be there, however, to drink from the same well.