Kari Lake officially filed her Senate candidacy paperwork

After a few months of rumors, Kari Lake officially filed the paperwork for her candidacy for the Arizona Senate in 2024. The Republican will seek to triumph after her defeat in the 2022 gubernatorial elections, in which, despite the polls anticipating a victory, she was less than one point behind Katie Hobbs.

Lake registered her Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday, making her entry into a potential three-way race official. At the moment, Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has not announced whether or not she will seek re-election, while Democrat Ruben Gallego has been campaigning and raising money for months.

Lake has not yet recognized the results of the 2022 elections, since she questions the delays in the printing of ballots and the long lines that took place, especially in Maricopa County, where she also alleged that some 35,000 extra ballots had been added. She filed a lawsuit in this regard in December 2022.

As reported by CNN, Lake met with Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John Cornyn (R-TX) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) before filing the paperwork. A formal event is expected to be launched in the coming days.

So far, only Mark Lamb (Pinal County Sheriff), George Nicholson (businessman), and Brian Wright (political consultant) have entered the Republican primary.

Arizona Republicans' disjuncture over their candidates.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) still does not have a favorite in Arizona, although Steve Daines (NRSC Chairman) himself recently indicated that he wants to see “a candidate who can win a general election.” In this particular case, Mitch McConnell stated that a victory will depend on the names on the ballot being “adequate.”

So far, Daines has followed the same common thread in choosing his candidates: that they can self-finance and win, at their discretion, in a general election. With this in mind, he has already endorsed Jim Justice for West Virginia, Tim Sheehy for Montana, Dave McCormick for Pennsylvania and Sam Brown for Nevada.

Indeed, state Republicans have serious doubts about repeating Lake or Blake Masters-style candidates. "Just look at what happened in the last two elections. You in no way have to guess what happens when MAGA candidates ignore the bread-and-butter issues Arizonans care about. Kari Lake is not governor. Blake Masters is not senator. Republicans have to get back to basics, ” according to Barrett Marson, GOP political strategist, in dialogue with POLITICO.

In turn, Brady Smith, Lake's former campaign advisor, called not to underestimate the popularity of the candidates' styles with the party's bases. "She’s demonstrated that she still wields the loyalty of the GOP base; anyone eyeing the Senate race has to factor that into their calculus,” he confessed to POLITICO.

Karrin Taylor Robson, a more moderate Republican who was also in talks with the NRSC to evaluate a possible candidacy, ruled herself out as a candidate. Although she was defeated in the 2022 primaries precisely against Lake, some saw her as the option with the best chance of winning in November 2024, given that they considered her a "traditional" Republican. Others see an opportunity in Jim Lamon, the businessman who also lost his 2022 Senate primary to Blake Masters. This is precisely the dilemma that Daines faces, whether to choose a more MAGA-style Republican or whether to lean towards something more traditional in a state that seems to prefer the latter option.

Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema has not yet decided whether or not she will seek a second term. The independent already knows Rubén Gallego's intentions, the Democrat who will seek to unseat her. Should she want to try, the Senate election in Arizona would become a three-way race between the independent, a Democrat and a Republican.