The Hispanic vote is a growing opportunity for the GOP in 2024

The Hispanic population in the United States is growing rapidly. By 2022, nearly 64 million citizens of Hispanic origin were living on U.S. soil. Naturally, this figure also means that there are more Hispanic voters. A study by Axios revealed that Latinos will increasingly important in defining the country's political future. "Latinos are an increasingly important voting bloc, representing 18.7% of the U.S. population and growing," said the study by Axios-Ipsos in association with Noticias Telemundo.

Winning the Hispanic vote can define an election for a political party. Although Latinos have traditionally identified with the Democratic Party, the latest studies show how that trend is changing, like a survey by Pew Research. In the last election, the Democratic Party lost support from Hispanics, while Republicans slowly grew in this group. "In November, 60% of Hispanic voters cast ballots for Democrats compared with 39% who supported Republicans. This 21-point margin is smaller than in 2018, when 72% of Hispanic voters favored Democrats and 25% supported Republicans," Pew Research said.

Loyalty to Democrats is waning

The Axios-Ipsos poll also agrees that the Hispanic community is taking a step back in their support for Democrats. In fact, Latinos assert that Republicans do a better job managing the economy. "More Latinos continue to favor the Democratic Party, but their allegiance is drifting. Some Latinos signal growing differences on cultural issues and crime — and give Republicans an edge in handling the economy," Axios said.

Similarly, Axios noted in another study that "Republicans made significant gains with women and Hispanic voters in last year's midterm elections, despite falling short of their expected 'red wave,' according to a new report on validated general election voters." The study also noted that "Republicans' gains among Hispanic voters took place in a year when former President Trump was not on the ballot, though many of his endorsed candidates were," Axios added.

Currently, it is estimated that at least 34 million Hispanics will be able to vote in the upcoming elections. "But 32% of all respondents said neither Democrats nor Republicans care about Latinos," the Axios study said. This will mean that candidates looking to win over undecided voters will have to run a campaign that targets the Latino vote.

"Hispanics are becoming swing voters"

Political analyst Alfonso Aguilar, president of the conservative group Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, spoke with Voz Media and explained that a fascinating "integration" phenomenon is occurring with Hispanics leading them to become "swing voters."

"These data show several things, among them, that Joe Biden is vulnerable, because he needs a good performance among Hispanics to be able to win swing states like Wisconsin or Georgia where the Hispanic vote reaches 6-7%," Aguilar told Voz Media.

The Hispanic analyst, head of the USCIS Office of Citizenship between 2003 and 2009, also commented that the more Hispanics integrate into American society, the more they vote like the typical American.

"Hispanics are no longer believing the narrative that Democrats are good and Republicans are bad. Now Hispanics look at everyday problems, like inflation, and say, 'Hey, this isn't right; let me look for an alternative.' Which is similar to what independents do," said Aguilar, who also commented that Trump, despite not having great growth for now among Hispanics, has secured a significant base going forward.

"We have to remember that, before Trump, no Republican candidate reached the same numbers among Hispanics as the former president. This 37% base is a good number and a great opportunity for the GOP to build and eventually conquer the Hispanic vote, something that would be very hard for the Democrats," Aguilar said.