A survey by The National Association of Business Economists found that 73% of economists are not very, or not at all, confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can bring inflation down to its 2% target over the next two years without causing even more economic attrition. Only 3% of economists say they are very confident that the Fed will succeed in reducing inflation without further hurting people's pockets. 14% are somewhat confident and 10% are confident.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed is "very focused" and "strongly committed" to reducing inflation, and that policymakers are reacting "quickly." However, the data show that the rise in prices affected a large part of the population in July as well.
Inflation is at levels not seen since the early 1980s. A recession is defined as a situation in which there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Therefore, with this definition, the US would be going through a recession, even though the government refuses to accept it.
In the survey by The National Association of Business Economists, 19% of economists surveyed said the U.S. is already in recession; 9% said the recession will begin in the third quarter and another 16% said the recession will begin in the fourth quarter. Another 28% ventured that the recession will occur in the first half of next year and 20% predicted that the country will not enter recession until the second half of 2023 or later.
Government denies recession
President Joe Biden doesn't want to let the word recession the economic narrative. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is on the same wavelength, but the facts are stubborn. Thus, a LendingClub Coporation´s recent report indicates that the number of Americans living payday reached 61% so far in 2022 . For their part, specialists from MorgingConsult claim that 12% of Americans lost income in the month of July.