Morning Consult published its latest data on voting intentions by state for the 2024 presidential elections. In the hypothetical case of a contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump to reach the White House, the most likely scenario of all, the Republican gains several points over the Democrat in seven key states for re-election.
The Republican victory in North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could become the key to a new term in the White House. In all of these states, Trump would get a higher percentage of votes than Biden.
Georgia and North Carolina would be the states in which Donald Trump would achieve the greatest difference in votes with the Democrat. In Georgia, according to Morning Consult's latest estimate, Trump leads Biden by six points. 49% versus 43%. In North Carolina the difference is nine points. Another 49% against 40%.
A victory in Georgia would be crucial. If in the 2020 presidential elections, Trump lost by 0.2 points, he could repeat his feat of the 2016 elections, when he took 5.2% from Hillary Clinton in that state.
Arizona, a state with a controversial outcome in the last elections due to incidents with the voting system in Maricopa County, is tinted red in Morning Consult's estimates. There Trump achieves 46% of the votes compared to 42%. He obtains similar results in Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, Trump also gets 46% of the vote estimate, but Biden is hot on his heels with 44%. Finally, Wisconsin is where he obtained the fewest votes, but with greater distance between him and Biden than in Pennsylvania: 45% compared to 41%.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are considered the great blue wall. The three states have voted in harmony for the same candidate since 1992. Statistically, if Trump wins in one of these states, he could also win in the other two, in the same way he did in 2016.
