Andrés Guilarte on Voz News: Florida is 'the main Republican stronghold,' while Texas 'is setting off all the alarms'

Pollster and political analyst Andrés Guilarte warned that the Republican Party is facing difficulties in mobilizing part of its electorate in Texas, despite maintaining considerable support among Cuban-Americans in Florida. In an interview with Karina Yapor, anchor and executive director of Voz News, Guilarte explained that the split among Republican voters in some races and the influx of new voters could complicate the party's results in the midterm elections.

In analyzing a University of Florida poll that puts Cuban-American support for Republicans at nearly 70 percent, Guilarte highlighted the influence of this community on the state's electoral landscape. "Many of them came here and have done a very good job of teaching their children about the evils of communism and socialism," he said. He also emphasized that, although some express dissatisfaction with the economy and with certain decisions made by President Donald Trump, they still intend to vote for the Republicans. "Even so, they say they're going to vote Republican," he noted. In his view, Florida is currently "the Republican Party's main stronghold in the country," thanks in part to the influence of Miami's Cuban community.

Regarding Texas, Guilarte analyzed the polls showing a tight race between Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa, as well as a lead by Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race. As he explained, there is a group of Republican voters who support Abbott but not Paxton. Among the reasons he cited were the tough primary that pitted Paxton against John Cornyn and Cornyn's lack of direct endorsement of the Republican candidate. ""There is a small percentage—less than 10 percent, but it exists—of voters who support Abbott but do not support Paxton," he explained.

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The analyst also raised concerns about early voting figures in Texas. While Democratic voters are heading to the polls and the most committed Republicans have already voted, other conservative voters remain on the sidelines. He also noted that between 20% and 25% of those who had already voted had never participated in a general election before. "If Republican voters aren't all turning out and there are a huge number of new voters in a national climate that's against the Republicans, that's where the alarm bells are ringing," he warned. For that reason, he believed the party's priority should be to mobilize its own base: "It's no longer a matter of convincing Democrats or independents. It's a matter of getting Republicans out to vote."

In Michigan, Guilarte described a reverse situation, with Republican Mike Rogers seeking to take the seat away from the Democrats against Abdul El-Sayed, who has the backing of Barack Obama. According to the analyst, El-Sayed is facing difficulties among some African American voters, and his progressive profile could pose a challenge in the state. "Mike Rogers has been in politics for many, many years," he noted, pointing out that the contrast between the two candidates could make Michigan an opportunity for Republicans, even if they lose ground in Texas.

Elsewhere in the interview, Guilarte addressed the controversy in Alaska surrounding the presence of another candidate named Dan Sullivan—the same name as the Republican senator seeking reelection. He stated that the confusion could influence a very close race and noted that, according to available information, Mary Peltola's Democratic campaign had apparently sought out a person with the same first and last name as the senator. "There are going to be voters who, when they go to look at the website, will see two Sullivans, and more than one will end up choosing the wrong Sullivan," he warned.

You can watch the full interview by clicking on the video below.