Nate Silver's forecast shows Trump gaining ground in all swing states

Nate Silver published his latest projections for the 2024 presidential election in which Donald Trump is anticipated to have gained ground in all key swing states, which could lead the former president to a resounding win.

Trump strong in key states

According to Silver's analysis, Trump has gained ground in all the swing states that traditionally decide presidential elections, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. These states, which flipped color between the 2016 and 2020 elections, are usually the most hotly contested during the electoral campaign. In Nate Silver's model, Trump not only regains lost ground in 2020, he expands his lead in strongholds, securing a decisive lead in the Electoral College projection.

The poll had an update noting, "A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College."