Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop migrant caravans: 'There will be no leniency'

President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday to "immediately" double the tariffs on Mexican goods if Mexico does not stop the migrant caravans heading toward the U.S. border. The warning comes after a caravan of more than 1,000 people set out from Tapachula, in the south of the country, driven in part by the Democratic victory in the midterms.

"Here we go again!" wrote Trump on his social media platform Truth Social. "They will not be accepted! MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED," added the president, who said that the governor of Texas, the Border Patrol and ICE had already been informed. "There will be no leniency!" he concluded.

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The caravan, estimated at about 1,500 migrants, is moving northward in the hope of reaching the U.S. Many of them—mostly families from Central America—hope that the Democratic victory in the midterm elections will open new avenues for entering and working in the country. 

This is not the first time Trump has used tariffs as a tool to pressure Mexico. In 2019, the president threatened to impose 5% tariffs on all Mexican products, with monthly increases up to 25%, if the country did not do more to curb irregular migration. The threat was withdrawn after Mexico agreed to deploy the National Guard along its southern border and take action against human trafficking networks. 

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Mexico caught between pressure and negotiation

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum responded Wednesday to the new migrant caravan advancing from Tapachula. In her morning press conference, she explained that the Mexican government maintains a response protocol based on respect for human rights and on informing migrants that "there is no asylum in the United States," since the mechanism that existed during the Biden administration was discontinued by Trump. According to Sheinbaum, many choose to return to their countries of origin upon learning of this restriction, and the Mexican government provides them with support for their return.

Sheinbaum has repeatedly emphasized the need to keep a "cool head" in the face of Trump's threats and pressure—a stance she has maintained since the beginning of her administration. The U.S. president's new tariff threat once again places the Mexican government in the dilemma of either tightening immigration controls to prevent trade obstacles or maintaining its humanitarian approach, at the risk of economic tensions between the two countries.