Heavy rains threaten Texas and the central United States: flash flood warnings issued

A large area of the central and southern United States is facing another day of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and the risk of flash floods on Thursday, October 1, with Texas and Oklahoma among the states under the closest watch.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) of the National Weather Service maintains a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in parts of the Southern Plains. The agency warns that the system could trigger numerous instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have already received heavy rainfall in recent days.

The greatest concern is concentrated from eastern Oklahoma to central and southern Texas, including part of the I-35 corridor between Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio. Weather models predict widespread accumulations exceeding three inches—about 76 millimeters—in some areas, with higher amounts in localized spots.

Up to four additional inches of rain

According to the latest WPC discussion, some areas of south-central Texas could receive between two and four additional inches of rain—approximately 50 to 100 millimeters—with even higher amounts in isolated areas.

Rainfall rates could reach one to two inches per hour, with even more intense localized downpours, which poses a particularly high risk in the Texas Hill Country region, which is vulnerable to flash flooding.

This event is part of a larger system that has been pushing tropical moisture from the southwest toward the Central Plains and the Midwest over the past few days. The WPC explained that an upper-level low-pressure system, combined with the remnants of Polo and a front moving southeastward, is fueling the storms.

The risk of flooding is not limited to Texas. The forecast also includes areas from the Central Plains to the Midwest, where the ground remains saturated after previous rains. The threat is expected to begin moving toward parts of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Friday.

Calmer weather in the Atlantic

While the central part of the country faces this round of rain, the tropical situation in the Atlantic appears considerably calmer.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported in its most recent update that there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and that no new tropical systems are expected to form over the next seven days.

On Wednesday, the NHC had issued its latest advisory on Hanna, after the system had become a post-tropical cyclone over the central subtropical Atlantic.