Andrés Guilarte warns about the midterms on Voz News: 'The Hispanic vote is a swing vote, and right now it isn't supporting the Republicans the way it did in 2024'

The Hispanic vote in Texas no longer appears to be backing the Republican Party with the same strength it showed in 2024, a shift that, according to pollster and political analyst Andrés Guilarte, could have consequences that extend far beyond the Senate race. In an interview with Voz News conducted by journalist Wendy Cruz, Guilarte explained that "the Hispanic vote is typically a swing vote; it's a vote that depends on the political context of what's happening," and he noted that, although the context for Democrats was particularly unfavorable in 2024, "it's not that common for it to change every two years in that way." A poll by the Cook Political Report and Televisa-Univision, conducted between August and September, also found a 63%–30% lead for James Talarico over Ken Paxton among Hispanic voters in Texas.

Guilarte emphasized that this behavior among the Hispanic electorate could have repercussions at multiple levels of Texas politics. "We've seen the numbers for Hispanics—even in Texas—where Talarico leads by 30 points among Hispanic voters in the state in some polls. That is extremely concerning, because it's not just about what we're seeing at the state level—in the Senate race—but it also has repercussions at the local level," he said. The analyst added that the phenomenon extends to "Congressional races and races within the state legislature" and noted that Texas is a particularly important Republican stronghold: "Texas is the California of the Republicans."

For Guilarte, the situation fits into a national landscape in which the party occupying the White House typically struggles in midterm elections. "We understand that in midterms, the party in power is usually the one that suffers defeat. The question is usually by how much," he explained. Regarding Trump's decision to launch efforts in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Oklahoma, he noted that the latter is primarily due to its proximity to Texas, while the electoral landscape has expanded to other states. "We're seeing that everywhere, both the Republican and Democratic parties are recognizing that there are opportunities to win."

The analyst also explained that the Republicans' ideological rhetoric mainly aims to mobilize their own base. "The fact that this contrast continues to be drawn does have a positive effect on the Republican base," Guilarte said, who noted that one of the ruling party's historical challenges during midterms is the combination of greater mobilization of independents against it and lower turnout among its own base.

However, he believes the message must change when Republicans address independent voters. "When speaking to a more independent audience, we're seeing a more practical conversation about specific policies," he said.

On the economy, Guilarte argued that the Republican Party should highlight job creation and positive signs, though he acknowledged the administration's difficulty convincing voters. "It's mainly, first, pointing out that the economy has indeed grown and that jobs have been added nationwide, which is very important for gauging the health of the economy," he explained. "But we must also keep in mind that the economy doesn't change that quickly in just one year," he added.

You can watch the full interview by clicking on the video below.