Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales, analysts for Inside Elections, begin their analysis of the situation by saying, "Apparently, there aren’t any normal elections." Either that, or what was "normal" has changed and we have to accept it.
According to analysts:
The fight for the House is emerging as the biggest surprise of the cycle. Republicans are unlikely to reach our range of a gain of 13-30 seats, if they win the majority at all. Independent voters who disapproved of the job Biden is doing and who prioritized economic concerns did not break toward Republican candidates as expected.
Republicans need to win five more seats
Now, the Republicans' chances of winning districts have narrowed to a range of between 4-11 seats. It could be enough, as they currently only need five more to control the House. Here's the situation, according to Inside Elections:
Likely Democratic victory:
AZ-04 (Stanton, D)
CA-09 (Harder, D)
CA-26 (Brownley, D)
MD-06 (Trone, D)
Democratic victory trend:
AK-AL (Peltola, D)
NV-04 (Horsford, D)
Democratic leaning:
CA-47 (Porter, D)
CA-49 (Levin, D)
ME-02 (Golden, D)
NV-01 (Titus, D)
NV-03 (Lee, D)
NY-18 (Ryan, D)
Tied:
CA-13 (Open; Harder, D)
CA-22 (Valadao, R)
CT-05 (Hayes, D)
NM-02 (Herrell, R)
NY-22 (Open; Katko, R)
OR-06 (Open; New)
WA-08 (Schrier, D)
Republican leaning:
AZ-06 (Open; Kirkpatrick, D)
CA-27 (Garcia, R)
CO-08 (Open; New)
OR-05 (Open; Schrader, D)
Republican victory trend:
AZ-01 (Schweikert, R)
CA-45 (Steel, R)
MT-01 (Open, New)
WA-03 (Open; Herrera Beutler, R)
Likely Republican victory:
CA-03 (Open; McClintock, R)
CA-40 (Kim, R)
Uncalled House Republican races to watch for:
CO-03 (Boebert, R)
CA-41 (Calvert, R)
