The Democratic Party's electoral options are falling by the day, while the Republicans are getting closer to making a major political turnaround in the midterm elections. With less than a week to go before Election Day, analysts are extending the advantage they give to the Republicans.
Real Clear Politics is the oldest and most prestigious polling analysis center. They have been analyzing polls since 2000, and that analysis has led them to the conclusion that the polls are significantly biased in favor of the Democrats. RCP averages the polls, but then corrects them for bias, and that is the basis for a forecast for each senatorial election in the 34 states in which the Upper House is up for renewal.
Recently, RCP had widened the lead it gave the Republican Party to 52 senators to 48 for the Democrats. That forecast has been left behind. The latest forecast by RCP extends the GOP's advantage to 54-46. To flip the Democrats' control of the Senate, the GOP will need to retain Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and win one of these other states: Georgia, New Hampshire, Washington, Arizona or Nevada.
RCP believes that New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia are all in contention, but with an advantage for the Republican candidates. The case of New Hampshire is notable because it is a state that usually votes Democratic, and candidate Don Bolduc is a very conservative military man supported by Donald Trump.
538 recognizes the "red wave"
The political shift is of such a caliber that even the other major polling analysis center, FiveThirtyEight, is already giving the Republicans a better chance of controlling the Senate, despite its bias in favor of the Democrats.
That bias may be due in part to the fact that polls give Democrats better results than they get in elections. But 538 begins to recognize the bias of the polls, and also start correcting it to make their predictions. For example, his averaging of Georgia polls gives Raphael Warnock (D) a 1.7-point lead, but in what he calls the "Deluxe model" he corrects that lead to just 0.3 points.
Thus, 538 already gives the Republicans a better chance of controlling the Senate: a 51% chance . In order for the Republicans to control the Senate, it is necessary for them to obtain at least 51 senators, since in a 50-seat tie, as is currently the case, the vote of the Senate President, who is Kamala Harris, decides.
The Cook Political Report
This is not the only news about the red wave. The Cook Political Report also introduces changes to their model to adapt it to what they believe is the current situation. The Hill
reports that the election analysis center gives 10 districts to the Republican Party that in 2020 had given candidate Joe Biden at least an 8-point lead over his rival, Donald Trump.
Dave Wasserman, editor of The Cook Political Report, says in the latest analysis:
The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats that President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 are in real jeopardy with a week to go. And if you're looking for a surprise in the House, the best places to watch might be blue states where there are no competitive statewide races to drive turnout, Democratic governors underperform, and GOP candidates have been able to take advantage of high crime and inflation.
Meanwhile, betting odds bolster confidence in a Republican victory in both chambers. To get a dollar, you have to bet 73 cents. Bets on Republicans winning the House but failing to win a majority in the Senate are very cheap at 30 cents on the dollar.
This electoral forecast seems to be related to the fact that the Republican Party has more prestige among voters on those issues more important for voters, as shown by a recent Gallup poll:
NBC NEWS: "Republicans hold MASSIVE advantage on 3 of 5 most Important issues according to New Gallup poll".
Which party do you trust to handle:
⦿ Immigration: GOP +33
⦿ The Economy: GOP +31
⦿ Crime: GOP +28
⦿ Gun policy: GOP +5
⦿ Abortion: Dem +14pic.twitter.com/5qx5Wq7MSS
- InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022