A survey conducted by Blueprint Rolling between January 5 and January 8, 2023, revealed that Kari Lake could likely win a seat as senator in Arizona in 2024. The poll shows that she has the support of 35.7% of Republican voters, placing her ahead of Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego and independent candidate and current state Sen. Krysten Sinema who, respectively, would have 31.9% and 13.8% support.
According to the survey, re-election is complicated for Sinema, who would go from being the current senator to being the third choice for Arizonans. However, she would have the support of both some Democratic and Republican voters by winning the support of 15% of Biden 2020 voters and 11% of Trump 2020 voters.
Undecided vote key in Arizona senatorial election
In addition, the survey pointed out that 18.6% of voters have not yet decided who to vote for. This percentage is higher for respondents who support the current president, with 23% claiming to be undecided and unclear on who should have their vote (compared to 13% of pro-Trump respondents). Blueprint Rolling concludes that this would suggest that some Democrats may be waiting for the election to begin before deciding on a candidate.
However, Krysten Sinema's only chance of getting re-elected as senator may be if the Republican party were "to nominate a candidate so flawed that moderate and conservative voters would abandon that person," and favor the independent candidate.
After polling 618 people, the survey revealed that when it comes to ethnic groups, Sinema has 45.5% of Native Americans' support. However, she hasn't managed to capture the Hispanic vote, with only 3% support. Far ahead of her are the other two candidates who could run for Senate in Arizona. Gallego has the support of 40.9% of this group, while Republican Kari Lake has the support of 39.1% of those polled.
