Since 1934, midterm elections occurring two years after the inauguration of a new president have seen results favor the opposing party. It may be that two years allow for an accumulation of disappointment with the winning party or that voters often distrust the party in power. Whatever the reason may be, that is the trend.
The upcoming midterm elections will be held on Nov. 8. It is the Biden's first test after his two years as president, and the situation appears not to favor him at all. The Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy has created persistent inflation, which the Fed must now combat with increasingly higher interest rates. Families have been forced to take on debt to maintain their standard of living, as real wages have suffered the largest decline in 25 years.
The polls initially seemed to doubt a potential GOP advance. FiveThirtyEight projected Democrats to have a two-thirds chance of holding the Senate. The House of Representatives, which has a Democratic majority, only appeared slightly more likely to switch sides. And as the weeks went on, the prospects for the Democratic Party only got better in both houses of Congress.
However, the tables have now turned. The polls on general voting intention, although they do not always translate accurately into the distribution of seats in the House or Senate, show a general trend towards the GOP. Those of the last few weeks point to a potential Republican recovery.
According to 538, support for the Democrats has risen from 42.4% to the current 45.4% since mid-June, encouraged in part by the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The Republicans, who had 45% support in mid-June, fell to 43.8% on September 22. However, the GOP has gained back some lost ground, receiving 44.5% of support in the Oct. 10 polls.
RealClearPolitics, a pioneer in poll analysis, reported an average of 44.0% support for the Republican Party on Sept. 21. At that time, the Democratic Party trailed by 1.3 points. The latest data from Oct. 8 gives the Republican Party 46.1%, 0.9 points ahead of the rival party.
Largest difference in number of representatives
What is interesting about this recovery is that, according to RCP's calculations, the lead Republicans already had in the House of Representatives has widened. According to Daily Wire, RCP has revised its forecast so that the 47 seats currently held by Democrats are now considered "toss-ups" between the two parties.
Currently, the Democrats control 220 seats to just 212 for the Republicans. Three seats are currently vacant. Two of these are due to the resignations, and the third because of the death of Republican Jackie Walorski, whom a confused Joe Biden was looking to find at a congressional event in memory of the congresswoman.
The new map developed by RCP gives the Republican Party 220 seats, and Republicans is likely to win some of the 35 elections RCP categorizes as closely contested. The map only gives the Democratic Party 180 seats, far from the 218 it needs for a majority.
A Republican Senate?
The situation in the Senate is more intricate. The two parties currently split the 100 senators evenly, and the vote of Vice Chairwoman Kamala Harris is crucial. Will the situation remain the same after the November elections?
Per CPR, The Republican Party is expected to win 47 senate races and the Democratic Party only 46. However, as the Daily Wire also points out, the winds have been blowing in the Republican Party's favor lately in the Senate as well: "The last five races have shown state changes in favor of Republicans. Those races - in Missouri, Washington, Washington, Vermont, Ohio and Alaska - could easily tip the balance to give Republicans a solid majority in the Senate."