Two out of five Americans believe that a civil war is somewhat likely in the country in the next decade. Data from a survey conducted by The Economist and YouGov revealed that the majority of citizens (66%) believe that divisions have worsened since the beginning of 2021 and 62% believe that clashes will increase in the coming years.
Only 8% said that the country is less divided and very few (7%) believe that things will improve in the coming years.
Around three in five Americans (62%) expect an increase in political violence over the next few years, while 15% expect the same amount. Just 9% expect political violence to decline.https://t.co/Q8GbwMlr5b pic.twitter.com/yZDCDCab14br
- YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) August 29, 2022
The survey noted that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to perceive this divide. Nearly 80% of Republicans said the country is more politically divided than it was a year ago versus 59% of Democrats. Similarly, they are more likely than Democrats to think this divide will increase in the coming years (72% vs. 58%).
Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to say the United States has become more politically divided since the start of 2021 (79% vs. 59%). Similarly, they are also more likely to expect this divide to grow over the next few years.https://t.co/Q8GbwMD2tL pic.twitter.com/M3xehaonMb
- YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) August 30, 2022
Political violence and civil war
In this regard, three out of five Americans (60%) consider that there will be an increase in political violence in the coming years while only 9% expect political violence to decrease.
When asked "what is the likelihood that political violence will culminate in a civil war in the United States?"43% of respondents said it is a likely scenario in the next decade. Of these, 14% said "very likely.” About one in three (35%) said it is not very likely and 22% said they were not sure. Those who describe themselves as "strongly Republican" make up the group of respondents who lean more towards the civil war option (54%).
More than half of Americans who identify as "strong Republicans" (54%) think civil war is likely within the next decade.https://t.co/ZwZ2C6213I pic.twitter.com/aCnQdmpIk7
- YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) August 30, 2022
The YouGov survey was conducted from August 20-23, 2022 among 1,500 adult U.S. citizens.
