"The governor’s contest may get more press, but the battle for Harris County Judge may be a better indicator of the Lone Star State’s political trajectory." noted an article by Charles Blain in City Journal prior to the midterm elections.
[The Harris County judge] serves as the de facto mayor of the largest county in Texas (third largest in the nation and home to Houston), which often finds itself in the crosshairs of Republican state lawmakers. Thus far, the race has been a tug-of-war between national and local issues.
The results of the race showed that although the county "still trends Democratic, it’s more purple than blue." Progressive Lina Hidalgo faced Republican challenger Alexandra Del Moral Mealer. Hidalgo won re-election by just 16,000 votes (1.5%) of the 1.1 million that were cast. However, "Republicans prevailed in a handful of district court judicial races."
Blain returned to City Journal to explain how Republicans benefited in the midterm elections and what factors influenced the progressive Hidalgo's victory as county judge:
The climate in Texas’s largest county still favors Democrats, but they don’t have the mandate that they thought they had, and Republican candidates remain viable.
Paying more attention to civic groups
Abstention was a key factor in the elections. The state saw a record-high 9.6 million registered voters refrain from voting altogether, up from 9.3 million in 2014. Nearly 740,000 of these non-voters were Republicans who voted in the primary elections but stayed home for the midterms.
Blain argues that "Republicans in Texas’s urban areas must focus on turning out their voters. Many Republican voters and donors often see these races as a lost cause. This race should remind Republicans that opportunity still exists in cities."
In Houston, and in urban areas generally, Republicans need to be more active with civic and community groups rather than solely focusing on political organizations.
Another influential factor was the low turnout of black and young voters. In early voting, black turnout declined by 25%. Voter turnout among voters between the ages of 18 and 35 declined by 35%.
A close race
Blain explains that it wasn't all bad for the GOP. "Republicans scored their first countywide win since 2016" in the district court judicial races, thanks to a stressed importance on an issue that has been on many Texans' minds: public safety. A crime wave was unleashed in the county due to Hidalgo's progressive policies. Many moderate democrats and independents turned to Republican candidates who focused their campaign on the fight against crime.
