As she finalizes her 2022 election demands, Kari Lake is inching closer and closer to announcing her 2024 Senate bid. The Republican will meet with senators soon, launch a book, and, as one of her aides confessed, the likelihood that she will seek Kyrsten Sinema's seat is 99%.
Donald Trump endorsed Lake in her bid to retain the governorship of Arizona in 2022. After prevailing in a close-than-expected primary over Karrin Taylor Robson, she was the favorite to succeed Doug Ducey in the Grand Canyon State, or at least that's what the polls at the time reflected.
Although the Real Clear Politics average placed her 3.5 points ahead of Democrat Kattie Hobbs, Hobbs won on election day by 0.6 percentage points, some 17,000 votes out of more than 2.5 million. It was the closest gubernatorial election of the midterm elections.
Kari Lake headed to the Senate?
Lake challenged the results because of delays in printing ballots and long lines, especially in Maricopa County, where she also alleged that some 35,000 extra ballots had been added. She filed a lawsuit about the issue in December 2022.
While the Republican finishes settling the lawsuits, she will meet with senators on Capitol Hill on Thursday, May 11, to seemingly reinforce her intentions to run for Senate in 2024. So far, only Mark Lamb, sheriff of Pinal County, has entered the Republican primary.
Lake is showing many signs that she will enter the race. For example, she will soon launch a book entitled "Unafraid: Just getting started," and she dropped some strong hints during her visit to the United Kingdom. In a dialogue with Piers Morgan, she said, "If for some reason we don't get a fair outcome in our election, I will run for Senate, most likely."
In addition, her aide Colton Duncan said he is "99 percent sure she's going to run for Senate."
Kari Lake spox @duncan_colton texts me: "I'm 99 percent sure she's going to run for Senate." https://t.co/EIFtEhxkY7
— Andrew Egger (@EggerDC) May 3, 2023
Arizona Republicans'quandary over their candidates
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) does not yet have a frontrunner in Arizona. However, Steve Daines (NRSC Chairman) recently indicated that he wants to see "a candidate who can win a general election." In this case, Mitch McConnell stated that victory would depend on the names on the ballot being "appropriate."
Indeed, state Republicans have serious doubts about repeating candidates in the style of Lake or Blake Masters. "Just look at what happened in the last two elections. You in no way have to guess what happens when MAGA candidates ignore bread-and-butter issues that Arizonans care about. Kari Lake is not governor. Blake Masters is not senator. Republicans have to get back to basics," expressed local GOP political strategist Barrett Marson in dialogue with POLITICO.
Brady Smith, Lake's former campaign advisor, called for not underestimating the popularity of the grassroots-style candidates. "She's (Lake) demonstrated that she still wields the loyalty of the GOP base; anyone eyeing the Senate race has to factor that into their calculus," he confessed to the same media outlet.
Karrin Taylor Robson, a more moderate Republican, is also in talks with the NRSC to evaluate a possible candidacy. Although Lake defeated her in the 2022 primaries, some see her as the option with the best chances of winning in November 2024. Others see an opportunity in Jim Lamon, the businessman who lost his 2022 Senate primary to Blake Masters.
Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema has not yet decided whether or not she will seek a second term. The Independent already knows the intentions of Rubén Gallego, the Democrat who will seek to unseat her. Should she want to try, the Senate election in Arizona could become a three-way race between the Independent, a Democrat and a Republican.
