Joe Biden announced his candidacy for the presidency in 2024 through a video. The current head of state will seek another four years in the White House and, if elected, would again break the record for the oldest person to be selected. To achieve this, he cannot afford to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin: the famous "blue wall" he rebuilt in 2020. However, voters in these states are not entirely happy with his administration.
In 2016, Donald Trump surprised everyone by dynamiting the wall and became the first Republican to prevail in all three states since Ronald Reagan in 1984. The 46 electoral votes totaled by this set were enough to pass the 270 threshold and leave Hillary Clinton out of the Oval Office.
In the 2020 Biden-Republican showdown, Wisconsin was the closest state of the three. A mere 20,000 votes (0.8%) gave the victory to the former senator, who began his term with good approval numbers. During the first four months of 2021, 51% were happy with his job as president, against 44% who already looked at his job performance negatively.
Two years later, the president is in the red with the reelection campaign underway. According to a recent Morning Consult poll accessed by US.elections (an Instagram account focused on election polls,) 55% of voters disapprove of his administration, against 42% who still approve. In Pennsylvania, the numbers are similar. The Keystone State is perhaps the most important within the wall, as it awards the most electoral votes (20).
While Trump surprisingly carried it in 2016, Biden snatched it away in 2020 by a scant 1.17%. Again, during the first months in office, still in the initial honeymoon period, Pennsylvanians gave the Democrat the thumbs up with a 52% approval rating. In 2023 that number dropped by 11%, as only 41% viewed his presidency favorably. The negative image climbed from 43% to 56% in this period, forcing Biden to improve these figures in light of November 2024.
The latest state in the "blue wall" is Michigan. Trump had been the first Republican to carry the Great Lakes State since George H. W. Bush in 1988. However, four years later, this was the furthest out of the reach of the three for him. Biden prevailed by 2.78% and won all 16 electoral votes, putting Michigan back in the Democratic column. In the same Morning Consult survey, the Commander-in-Chief's positive image plummeted since 2021, when 52% were satisfied with his government. By the first months of 2023, 56% disapproved and only 41% approved.
Despite these results, the state moved toward the GOP by 1.6% compared to its 49 peers. In addition, Biden achieved much lower margins of victory than Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, leading to the assumption that the Republican Party will threaten the structure of the wall in the next presidential election.