Abortion is not Americans' biggest concern

Analyses show that the incidence of abortion in the campaign will not have a clear effect on the distribution of the vote.

Since the Supreme Court ruled that there is no constitutional right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, controversy has raged across the country. Some states favor restricting legal access to abortion, while others seek to expand it.

The latest FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll shows that abortion is still not the main concern for americans, ranking fourth on a list of 20 issues affecting the country. In the survey of 2,000,000 people, some 1,500 adults ranked abortion as the fourth most important problem facing the country. Inflation ranked first, with 60% of those polled citing it as the top problem. Crime and gun violence ranked second with 34%, and in third place polarization with 33%.

In addition, according to the survey, nearly all respondents who mentioned abortion as a key issue gave strong responses showing the range of emotions and mixed feelings that can accompany this issue.

encuesta ipsos sobre preocupación por el aborto


Abortion causes strongest divisions in political arena

Plan B pills have been approved by 70% of respondents, who agree that these methods should be legal. This includes another 62% of Republicans. But abortion provoked the strongest partisan divisions. At least 80 percent of Democrats said surgical or pill abortion should be legal, compared with about one-third of Republicans who reject surgical abortion.

Where similarities are found is in traditional contraceptive methods. About 90 percent of Americans said condoms and birth control pills should be legal in all or most cases; 81 percent said the same of IUDs (intrauterine devices).



Does it benefit Democrats? Not so fast

Abortion has undoubtedly become a major issue in society, so one might think about how it would affect the 2022 midterm elections because of the controversy surrounding it. However, beyond what states are doing to restrict or expand access to it, the fundamental concern over rising prices and Biden's low reputation could be a big advantage for Republicans in the fall, so you don't see much difference in polls or interviews previously conducted .

Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports has written an analysis in which he gauges the effect the Supreme Court decision could have on next November's midterm elections. The demographer notes that 24% of Americans think it's hard to get an abortion, but 40% think it's too easy. That hasn't changed after the ruling.

Why do 40% think so? Because 62% of citizens live in states where getting an abortion is easier than they would like to. And Rasmussen adds: "Seven percent (7%) of Americans live in states where abortion is allowed up to the moment of birth. Only 18% of voters think that's appropriate. Another 55% live in states where abortion is legal well into the second trimester of pregnancy. Sixty-one percent of voters favor limiting abortion to the first trimester only."

Thus, "in raw political terms, a huge opportunity opens up for candidates whose views are in line with public opinion. If given a choice, 57% would prefer a candidate who thought abortion should be allowed only during the first 15 weeks of pregnancy to one who favored allowing abortion up to the time of birth. Only 24% would prefer the abortion-at-any-time candidate," according to Scott Rasmussen's analysis.

This situation would benefit candidates who have a more centrist view, and further away from extremes. This could hurt Democratic candidates more than Republican candidates.